natural gas

Fortunately, natural gas abounds in the offshore of Mozambique and Tanzania where a major hit is announced almost every 4-months.

Ironically, these gas discoveries, as those of coking coal and mineral sands, seem to replicate the case of a race between the two longitudinal extremities of the Indian Ocean – minding for the gap on scales, somehow Australia and the Afro-índico are running for the same niche-markets.

And yet, there is another gas-race worth to mention.

Whilst conventional projections (BP for instance) considers that LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) from Mozambique and Tanzania will be market-entrants only in 2030 (the so-called third wave), the recently discovered TCF (Tera-Cubic Feet) suggest otherwise.

However, this second-wave market-opportunity is likely to imply a race between brothers – Tanzania and Mozambique.

While the good news is that the gas plots are well defined in terms of frontiers - and that is a fundamental premise for maritime tranquillity -, the bad news is that, with the Middle East still on quite potent terms, and Australia coming out of a string of powerful new gas-investments in its west coast, it is improbable that there will be room for two distinct afro-indic LNG operators in 2016/20.

And yet, there is another trebling part in this story.

Regrettably, as far as I know, it will be quite difficult to share common LNG production facilities and terminals between Tanzania and Mozambique, not to mention within the same country, unless the operators are invited to do so.

And that’s a pity because this is an extremely valuable and technically demanding resource.

Again, like with Coal, oligopolies will soon tell us who will win or lose this challenging LNG second-wave opportunity.